Bread, pubs and some healthy Asian seasoning
What are the "hottest" concepts in the UK eating out market? It's a question regularly asked, and normally when there's an industry conference like M&C Report's Restaurant 2006 coming up
There is an argument that the brands that most deserve the title are McDonalds and Subway,
McDonalds remains the nation's biggest, some would even say favourite, chain with well over 1,000 stores. It continues to innovate and is perhaps the sector's most enlightened employer - with its high ratio of women in management roles and its family-friendly shift arrangements.
Subway is close on McD's heels as the fastest growing foodservice chain in both Europe and Britain. It now has almost 700 UK stores, more than double the number just two years ago.
Whether Subway sandwiches should be classed as "traditional" fast food or new-wave fast casual is immaterial. The brand is gaining new customers - and providing a "new" experience in many outlying corners of the country.
The same could also be said of other established names - Starbucks and Toby Carvery. Starbucks continues to lead the global coffee crusade through consistent expansion, with the UK its most important European marketplace. The rejuvenated Toby, from Mitchells & Butlers, is the epitome of a blue-collar brand, bringing fresh and affordable food to the mid-market.
They all make the point that being "hot" is not simply about being new, exciting and different. Hot brands are those that are replicable, profitable, are capable of being branded and can stand the test of time - or show the potential of achieving those objectives.
They also demonstrate that the real market drivers are in the mainstream - or the emerging mainstream.
So what about the market's "new establishment", the brands that just five, and certainly 10, years ago could have fallen into the "fledgling" category, but are now firmly established as successful businesses, the likes of Nando's, Caffe Nero, Wagamama, La Tasca, Frankie & Benny's, Carluccio's, Strada, Prezzo, Zizzi, Loch Fyne, Hotel du Vin and Yo! Sushi?
There is a strong case for saying that they too should be classed as among the "hottest", as they all continue to expand their estates and perhaps most importantly to push back the boundaries of what is deemed mainstream.
They are now being joined by the likes of Giraffe, Las Iguanas and Fishworks - all exciting concepts that have reached the dozen site mark and are now attracting market and investor attention to push on to wider appeal and the next stage of development.
Depending on your viewpoint, these concepts have either ridden on the back of the huge growth in eating-out that the UK has experienced in the last decade or two, or have been responsible for fuelling much of it. The truth is probably both.
But as the emergence of the "new establishment" has shown there is always the imperative to discover the new, the different and the exciting to maintain the market's momentum. So where is the next Nando's, or Carluccio's or even Starbucks coming from?
The problem with a growing and increasingly sophisticated market like eating-out is that the task is not getting any easier.
These days the consumer has to be put centre stage. This quote from Business Week magazine on the challenge for any consumer-facing retail operation sums it up well: "Drawing in consumers means studying lifestyles and creating destinations where they delight in spending leisure time".
Understanding consumer trends is paramount, from the mass affluence of 21st century society to the increasing presence of women in the workplace to the ageing population to the advent of the so-called "experience economy" to the counter-balance that is the emergence of the "anxiety society" and the "new Puritanism" that is acting to put a brake on mass indulgence.
Perhaps the most significant development is the identification by the Future Foundation research organization of the "healthy hedonists" - now the majority of the population who balance personal indulgence with the desire to stay fit and healthy and to do the "right thing". These are the people driving healthy and now ethical eating. Knowing how they are going to act and when they want their pleasures and when they want what's good for them, or when they want both at the same time, is perhaps the eating-out market's biggest challenge.
It is certainly being reflected in current market trends. Convenience remains a major market driver with continuing growth in "to-go" food in travel and retail and an expansion in deli and fast casual operations. With that comes an increasing emphasis on style and "experience" delivery, but with a lack of formality.
Feel-good food that can be healthy and indulgent, with big flavours and freshness to the fore, is a major trend. This manifests itself both in the continuing popularity of Asian-inspired foods and concepts, which carry a health image, and the resurgence in regional tastes and locally-produced foods, that carry the provenance premium. Even brands such as Toby are looking to freshly prepared food to differentiate themselves from the supermarkets.
Coffee and sandwich chains have already latched onto this, but perhaps the most interesting current market development brings those two together. It is the emergence of artisan bread and patisserie chains.
Four years ago at the Restaurant 2002 conference, Dennis Lombardi the American restaurant guru picked out the Panera Bread bakery chain as the "epicentre" of the fast casual eating revolution then happening in the United States. The Atkins Diet fad probably put a brake on bread-based chains emerging this side of the Atlantic, but they are here now. Ironically, the influence is more Parisienne than New York.
Paul, Le Pain Quotidien, Patisserie Valerie and Apostrophe are all making inroads into the London market, with ambitious expansion plans. Bakeries are becoming sexy and even Harrods 102, the famous department store's new food court on London's Brompton Road, uses fresh bread and pastries as its main window dressing to pull in customers.
These concepts sum up today's "healthy hedonist" lifestyle, combining indulgent cakes, pastries and jams with organic bread and fair trade coffee.
Apart from bread, pure health concepts such as Itsu, Crussh and Chop'd, the salad business based in the City of London, can all one's to watch. The hot summer perhaps did as much as anything to put smoothies on the menu.
Asian concepts remain "hot" too, with Ping Pong, Dim T, Tampopo and Feng Sushi prime candidates to follow in the successful footsteps of Wagamama. Of course, Itsu wins both ways, being ultra-healthy and Asian too - not surprising perhaps for a concept from Pret a Manger founder Julian Metcalfe.
The move back to traditional and regional flavours in food is certainly being seen in the fine dining end of the business, with London restaurants such as Galvin and the newly-opened Arbutus joining the established St John as trend-setters.
The big opportunity in this areas lies in the pub market, which despite being the UK's favourite eating-out destination has still largely failed to grasp the casual dining initiative. Is there anyone out there to challenge the increasingly dominant Mitchells & Butlers, with its portfolio stretching from Toby to Project 'S' to its new pub bistro concept?
Regional brewers such as Greene King, Shepherd Neame and Hall & Woodhouse have the sites, but the greatest competition is still likely to come from smaller entrepreneurial operators, such as the growing Geronimo and Peach Pub Co groups, and former Spirit chief Karen Jones new gastro pub project, Food & Fuel.
The question, of course, is which of these will be able to stay "hot" over the long term?
Peter Martin is founder of the Peach Factory and Peach Network and presented the Hot Concepts session at this year's Restaurant 2006 conference
"Drawing in consumers means studying lifestyles and creating destinations where they delight in spending leisure time"
The challenge for retail as defined by Business Week