Unexpected opportunities or unmitigated misery?

Christmas came late, as it did for high street retailers, and anyone seeing like-for-like sales for December in the flat to - 5% range can probably consider themselves to have done a creditable job. At least that's what many analysts are saying.

The sales in high street stores may have helped, while some chains believe the 'sod it' factor was at work in the period between the two holidays, with people looking for an affordable cheer-up treat. What's been your experience?

What is sure is that the fortunes of the retail sector will have a continuing effect on eating and drinking out this coming year - and keeping a close eye on changing consumer shopping habits will be time well spent.

The national media has been predicting a dire time for the retail sector, concentrating on the demise of long-time strugglers like Woolworths and job cuts at Marks & Spencer, but there have been bright spots there too. John Lewis managed flat figures against last year and even troubled Debenhams saw only a 3% performance fall.

According to Retail Week (http://www.retail-week.com/index.html), the Co-op had a particularly strong Christmas in its food stores with like for like sales for the three weeks to January 3 up 6%. Waitrose likewise reported buoyant trading over the 12 days of Christmas and the New Year with like for likes up 5.4%, and food alone up 3.1%. It said December 23 was the supermarket's busiest ever trading day.

Is this a sign of stay-at-home Britain taking hold, and a continuing trend into 2009? What it does show is that both top and bottom ends of a market can prosper. Quality and value are both important for consumers.

As is convenience, as the results from online food delivery business Ocado demonstrated. It reported its best Christmas to date with year-on-year sales growth up 25% in the four weeks to January 3.

But it was not just food stores that grew business. Affordable fashion aimed at younger shoppers did well too. Republic saw like for likes up 6.8% in the 11 weeks to January 4, while New Look, described these days as a "fast fashion" retailer, revealed like-for-likes ahead 2.8% in the two weeks to January 3.

What have we been saying about the resilience of the under 25s market?

But what underlying changes in consumer habits, if any, does the retail experience reveal, particularly about the new Austerity Britain? Retail Week has picked up on the new frugality, highlighting a redefining of "value" after years of using the word as a shorthand for "cheap" or "throwaway", with an increase in cheaper cuts of meat in Waitrose and a fall in ready meal sales in Asda, for example. Read "Consumer behaviour: A new era of frugal living", go to http://www.retail-week.com/News/2008/12/consumer_behaviour_a_new_era_of_frugal_living.html

That's all fine, but what are restaurant and pub customers saying? We all know that slow service remains the public's biggest grouse, and now The Good Food Guide has just published the top 10 bugbears about eating-out of its, admittedly mainly middle-class, readers - which include double tipping, hidden charges and aggressive turning of tables. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/restaurants/4060480/Top-10-restaurant-bugbears-revealed-by-eating-out-guide.html

One of the big questions for 2009 will be whether health or green trends remain mainstream. Evidence from the States, in particular new research for the National Restaurant Association, suggests they will. See http://www.restaurant.org/pressroom/pressrelease.cfm?ID=1726

While we are surfing the internet, the marketing award for the month must go to Le Pain Quotidien for getting its Marylebone store featured prominently in one of the latest TV ads for the iPhone - and it cost them nothing. It seems the advertising agency are big fans.

Happy 2009.